Friday, February 28, 2014
REPORTS ARE IN, 2013 WAS A SELLER'S MARKET!
Please don't misunderstand, buyers that took
action, still bought 20% below the high of2007, but due to tight inventory,
sellers enjoyed many multiple offer opportunities and bids were sometimes over
list price. As a result, the 2013
housing market had its biggest gains since 2004. Increase demand coupled with limited supply resulted in a
19.7% jump in home prices. Having
reported that, December was still a very slow month for sales for the resale
home in Sothern California. In
fact, they were at a 6 year low in volume, according to Data Quick, even as prices jumped, for precisely
that reason, low inventory, more demand on the housing that was available. (More on the exact numbers
later). What is the outlook after
one month of 2014? Decidedly, it
is a mixed bag: 1) Inventory remains tight, although listings are already
starting to hit the post-Super Bowl market pick up. Sellers who list early without waiting until the official
spring season will be rewarded with a brisk and busy market. The O.C. jobless rate dropped to 5.2%
reportedly at the end of January.
The Fed has trimmed back another 10 billion a month in its commitment to
buy bonds. The response overall
has been favorable which means expect interest rates to continue to inch
upwards. If you are a buyer looking
to keep as much purchasing power as possible, pay more attention to interest
rates than housing prices, because therein lies your true north. You qualify for a loan based on what
you can pay, so be cost sensitive more than price sensitive. There has been some solid economic news
reported, such our 4th quarter 3.2% annual rate of growth, based largely on
consumer spending which is usually a signal that people are feeling better
about their own personal economic outlook. Consumer confidence is a key to any serious turnaround
coupled with hiring trends and housing.
But the strength of the report also came from the type of spending;
durable goods such as cars, technology, and appliances. Spending on services also rose
significantly meaning traveling, dining out, and other non-essentials are also
coming back. There is a ways to go
yet, hiring being the key and still lagging behind the high of 2006. Expect as those numbers increase, so
will the housing market continue to heat up.
WHAT WERE THE EXACT NUMBERS?
The total number of houses sold in Orange County
for December, (the last full month available), was 3,089. That number shows a .6% increase in
sales volume, but is very deceptive.
The number of single-family resale homes was 1,730 which was a 13.9%
decrease from December of 2012.
Condos came in at 777 which was down 2.4%. It was not hit nearly as hard because entry level buyers
often find themselves in a condo, and that market segment has been very
steady. Million dollar plus homes
have also seen record numbers, as reported here last month. The missing segment has been the move
up buyer or move down buyer. As
more and more homeowners get their equity position back, and new construction
ramps up, giving those specific buyers a new place to go to, expect to see the
middle price range come into its own in 2014. Speaking of new homes, the number of sales for December was
582, a 120% increase year over year.
Distressed sales accounted for 24% of the December 2012 market, while in
2013, distressed sales numbered only 14%.
The median price for all house rose 21.3% to $570,000. Separating out the condos, the median
price was $372,000 a 22% rise and single-family resale was $639,000, rising
21%. All figures are comparing
December 2012 to December 2013.
More information is available at www.dqnews.com.
FIVE REASONS NOT TO BE A "FOR SALE BY OWNER"
It's always tempting to do something yourself. Get rid of the middle man, save
yourself some dough. Most people
would never fill their own cavity, paint their own house, or fix their fender
after an accident. Yet with their
greatest investment, people can be downright cavalier. There are many problems to selling your
own home, which are detrimental to your peace of mind and certainly to your
pocketbook. You may save the twenty
or thirty thousand on commission, but you may lose two or three times that by
mispricing your home or tying it up with a buyer who can never close, but that
gets you under contract and keeps you from selling to someone who could
buy. Here are the top 5 reasons:
1) There are too many people you have to communicate within a real estate
transaction, whose job description you know nothing about and therefore cannot
properly represent yourself, i.e. , Home Protection services, termite, appraiser,
lawyers for the buyer, the lender, the loan underwriter, the escrow agent, a
home stager (properly staged homes
can get up to $50,000 or more for your home.), to name a few . 2) Qualifying a buyer - as already
stated, once under a signed contract, you are obligated for an escrow period,
even if the buyer can't buy. A
preapproved letter means nothing, you're looking for a prequalified buyer. If you don't know all the differences,
it's trouble waiting to happen. 3)
Negotiating on your own home. This
is a dangerous area; overprice it and sit forever, under price it and you'll be
sorry forever. Knowing not only
comparable sales, but all the attributes that add to your homes price is
paramount. 4) Pricing your
home. As already stated, price is
a sensitive topic. Ask too much,
and the perception is already out there that your home is overpriced. How do you know when an offer is
legitimate or a lowball offer, looking to capitalize on your lack of
knowledge. 5) Most importantly, keeping your family,
your home, and its valuables safe from real predators, and cyber
predators. Where will you
advertise? Craig's List, Angie's List?
The Penny Saver, somewhere else online? How will you hold open houses? What will you do when 10 or 15 people come at
once? And what if all those people
are not actual buyers? How do you
qualify them, how to you control them once they step into your home? These are not scare questions. These are very real scenarios
that Realtors deal with every day and have professional procedures to protect
you, your home, and to sell your home for the highest price, with the least
amount of inconvenience. Truly,
this is something to think about.
Saturday, February 1, 2014
HAPPY NEW YEAR...WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2014
Most key analysts expect a slightly better market
in 2014 than we had in 2013. There
are several reasons for this; improved employment, better and easier financing,
a stabilizing economy with growth in the right direction and finally, a larger
and improved inventory. There is a
certain unknown quotient in a changing Fed Chairman, but by all accounts, Janet
Yellen's direction of the Fed aims to keep monetary policy, "highly
accommodative." In fact, it
appears that Yellen gets the fact that real estate drives the economy, and most
experts expect her, "to continue on Beranke's path," so stated Karl
Case, co-founder of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index. Any projections of doom, are very
tempered, the only one found at press from economist Essie Adibi from Chapman
University, who said the probability for housing doom was "low." It would have to come, according to
him, from high inflation and low productivity, both of which are very long
shots. In fact, inflation has not
even been a blip on the economic screen and is not projected to occur in
2014. John Karevoll of DataQuick
foresees, "the welcome decline into deserved obscurity of real estate
naysayers and their canned think-tank narratives...the naysayers will become
irrelevant as they doubt the housing's continued march to more normal, positive
conditions. Good riddance to
them." Rather strongly
worded, but isn't it about time we stop doubting a shred of positive news and
rather, embrace our economy for what it is and settle our lives around it,
which includes buying homes for our families and our lives.
WHAT WERE THE TRENDS FOR SO CAL AND THE O.C.?
The housing numbers were off in November, the last
full month available, but there are several good reasons. First and foremost, inventory slipped
as demand outbid sellers entering the market. Secondly, investor transactions slowed down, and that is
actually is a good thing, for the owner occupied integrity of neighborhoods and
for the bidding wars to stop both run ups in pricing and frustration for bona
fide purchasers. Finally,
distressed properties really dropped off the radar, dropping what had been a
huge segment of the purchase market.
The frosting on the cake was the usual housing slow down at the holidays. Expect a big engine to start humming
early, as many sellers waited for 2014 to put homes on the markets. Financing may become easier, and even
though we've had some slight rises to interest rates, expect them to stay under
5% for at least the first 2 quarters of 2014. But buyers will come to the market place early to avoid
higher rates. So Cal, comprised of
L.A., Ventura, O.C., Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego had a total of
17,283 new and resale houses and condos.
That was down 14.2% from October.
The typical seasonal decline between the 2 months is 7.6%. The median price for all So Cal was up
19.9% from November 2012 and has risen for 20 straight months. To keep things in perspective, this
rise is still 23.8% below the highest high of spring/summer 2007.
WHAT WERE THE ACTUAL NUMBERS?
The total number of homes sold in Orange County for
November, (the last full month available), was 2,632. This was down 8.6% from November of 2012. The overall median price was $560,000,
which is up 24.4% from November 2012.
There were 1,591 single-family resale, and 668 condo sales. New homes came in at 373, up 78% and
clearly illustrates a rebounding new home market.
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS WEIGHS IN WITH NEW STATISTICS
The following figures are from data gathered 12/19/2013 with
prior year comparisons and are national.
Sales were down 1.2% from a year ago and prices were up 9.4%, indicating
a rebounding and stabilizing market.
Perhaps the most important stat is that inventory has risen 5% and
experts expect more in 2014.
Distressed sales are currently 14% of sales as compared with 22%
previously. The million dollar
home market rose drastically nationwide, with the smallest rise here in the
west at 25.4%. A paltry increase
when compared with the northeast market which rose 45.3%.
Labels:
Sabrina Allen,
Short Sales,
Yorba Linda Real Estate
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