OC HOMES IN FORECLOSURE DOWN BY HALF

This was the headline in the OC Register on July 11th.  The true number of households in some stage of foreclosure, according to CoreLogic, was 4,300.  This represents a mere 1% of all households, and less than half the number of May 2012, which was 8,900.  Nationwide, 1 million US homes were in the foreclosure process for May, representing 2.6% of borrowers.  That number is down 29% from the previous year.  The point to glean from all that is that OC is stronger than the rest of the country, at least in avoiding foreclosure.  This is mainly a result of the appreciation of the last 2 years pushing more and more homeowners into equity positions, allowing them to either refinance or sell their home without it becoming a short sale, or facing foreclosure.

PROPERTY TAXES SEE BIGGEST JUMP IN FIVE YEARS

Yes, the notifications from the county tax assessor are making their way to your mail box as this is being written.  The boost is the result of a more robust market, solid appreciation, and new parcels which have sold, including commercial development as well as homes.  Prop 13 only allows 2% adjustment, so long time homeowners may get a notice of a slight uptick, but the most revenue will come from new housing developments, which allow for a fresh tax assessment based on sales price, broken down by land and improvements, and new commercial properties, factories, and shopping centers, to name a few revenue sources.  If you have questions about your tax bill, you should not hesitate to call the Tax Assessor and talk to one of their appraisers.  If you are in OC, you can view your tax bill online.  

ALL REAL ESTATE LOOKS GOOD 10 YEARS LATER

Many investments, whether bonds, stocks, mutual funds, etc, are bought to hold and in fact become long term investment strategies.  Remember, we have been desensitized these past 10 years from one extreme to another.  First, from 2002 to 2006, the public saw real estate as a means to get rich quick. Investment  for  the short term.  Sadly, many people got caught holding the bag, and lost a lot of money, trying to make real estate something in their investment portfolio, it was never meant to be.  Then the other extreme hit, of no one wanting properties except the heartiest, cash flush, investor.  But if you take10 years, any 10 year period, after the great depression, there is no time that real estate did not do well.  Food for thought.  See you next month.

WAIT UNTIL YOU HEAR THIS STATISTIC...IT'S A DOOZY.

This is a real estate newsletter.  It goes without saying that there is always an advantage to selling or buying in almost any market, depending on personal need and motivation.  But right now??  A staggering 96% of Americans currently looking in today's market, say home ownership is "very important."  It is particularly high for women and Gen X and Gen Y.  Another 74% of those polled said, "interest rates are at historic lows and now is a great time to buy."  But let's look beyond the hype of those who are enthusiastic, to see if there are other signs that So Cal is in an upward trend and that the recovery is more than momentary.  We don't have to look far.  The end of April and beginning of May have given us lots of ammunition.  First off, nationally, solid job gains have eased apprehension about the recovery.  The U.S. economy added a solid 165,000 jobs in April.  Unemployment scooted down to a four-year low of 7.5%.  Does anyone else remember when it was double digits?  Not only that, but the job gains were higher in February and March than originally thought, and the gains came despite a global slowdown.  The Orange County Register noted that if you track the three major moving companies, collectively the van lines fell 9% in moves out of California, comparing 2011 with 2012, the first drop since 2009.  Plus in 2012, the state added 296,000 jobs, the nation's biggest job boost, by the way, and unemployment in the state fell to 10.5% from 11.8%.  All in all, this means not only are people feeling better about their financial situation, they are better.  This paints a rosy picture that explains tight inventory and so many buyers out there.  Add three other factors: 1) low interest rates.  2) Pent up demand.  3) back to the survey, 46% of prospective sellers feel the need to find another house first, creating a big blockage of homes and 43% are waiting to make bigger profit.  There is definitely some buyer gridlock happening on the housing front.   Good ways to avoid this are be ready to buy and be prepared to offer your highest and best because you will most likely have stiff competition.  Sellers will be able to peruse through the offers.  Writing a letter to the seller, explaining why you want the house and what it means to you and your family is another great tool.  It isn't always just about the money, believe it or not.  Finally, some people still feel some skepticism over the recovery.  Is it too much, too fast?  Let's remember, prices may have risen sharply compared with the last 6 years, but this is real money this time, real loan qualifications, real down payments, real appraisals.  Prices could level off, if interest rates rise, or if more supply hits the streets.  But the people who already bought, could afford it, and will be sitting with a home whose price may have fallen, but are making a fixed payment at 3% interest.  They are not going to default and they are not going anywhere.

HOW WERE THE NUMBERS FOR THE FIRST QUARTER 2013?

The overall median price for the first quarter was $485,000, a 22% gain.  Resale homes came in higher at $540,000, an upward tick of 18.7%.  Condominiums median was $325,000, a 27.5% rise.  New homes, although much lower in volume were higher in price at $667,500, climbing 20.4%.  The total volume of all homes sold was 7,746.  There were 5,018 single-family resale, 2,203 condos and 525 new homes.  All numbers were higher than 2012.  Specifically for the month of March, there were only 108 homes that made it to a trustee sale auction/foreclosure, and only 574 Notices of Default recorded.  Indeed, CoreLogic reports that Orange County's foreclosure rate fell to less than1% in February.  Those that are 90 days or more delinquent dropped to 3.3%.

WHY DO PEOPLE BUY HOMES

The real estate blog Keeping Current Matters wondered about that and reported some recent reasons from a Gallup Poll.  Not all the reasons are financial.  In fact, below are the 5 most compelling reasons to buy, financial/non-financial.  First let's look at financial: 1) See owning as an investment  2) Chance to build equity and credit  3) Smarter than renting  4) More cost effective (3% interest and leveraging money)  5) Financial security/stability.  And now, non-financial:  1) Belief in home ownership  2) Don't want to rent  3) Better for family  4) Ability to do what you want with the property  5) Pride of ownership.  Gallup went on to give results that 8 of  10 of all people own or plan on owning property.  Here is their own quote regarding their results; "Our data on home ownership provide strong support for the idea that the American Dream of owning a home continues to be alive and well."  Finally, people were asked, regionally, where they thought prices were headed.  The results for the West?  62% said prices were going up.  25% said they would stay the same.  12% said they would go down.   What do you think?  Historically? Always up.  For more interest on Gallup polls, visit their website, www.gallup.com.  

CALIFORNIA IS FOR SALE...SORT OF

Let's put it this way, California hasn't looked this good to buyers in 8 years.  All of us who live in the Golden State, and who own or have owned property, have borne the brunt of a grueling recovery.  Actually, it was a market in free fall, that caused all kinds of pain, wrecked havoc not just in our fair state, but the shot heard round the world.  But a lot has changed in the last 8 years.  Part of the pain of a recession is that there seems no way out but to just grind it out.  Time, stamina, and determination have been local themes to Californians and in fact citizens of real estate everywhere.  Now we find builders are back in a big way, inventories are at historic lows (and by low, try less than half of the top of the 2006 market), money is cheap, and our state especially, is drawing buyers from all over, particularly cash buyers.  In fact, according to DataQuick, one in three Orange County buyers in 2012 paid cash.  Not surprisingly, the number of deals-- greater than 10,000, was the highest since California's last down market of 1992, twenty years ago exactly.  Why this insistence on history repeating itself?  Some would say it is because real estate is cyclical.  Others would say it is because people never learn that what goes up must come down.  Cycles do happen in real estate, and the cause for each generation's ups and downs do differ.  But germane to the process is a bubble, expanding for that economy's purpose, driven by that unique component of that expanding market.  But purely speaking, it is supply and demand driven.  The fuel to the fire this last time around was free loaded lending, irresponsible at best, and many would argue borderline illegal at worst.  Recovering from that has been painful and difficult for not only sellers and buyers, but the professionals left behind to deal with the cleanup of the heyday.  It is safe to say that we have today, a much healthier housing market, real lending standards, and the current pace of selling is based on legitimate pent up demand, from both move up buyers, first time buyers, and investors who still recognize the bottom of a market, although quickly rising.  They are coming in with cash from all over the world, some to stay in the market, holding properties as rentals, some still trying to "flip" properties to the many buyers out there, and some buying luxury second homes.  Read on and you'll learn some interesting information on current numbers, sales, foreclosures, and tips on buying and selling, and why the perfect time to do both is right now!