Sunday, May 6, 2012

ZILLOW ECONOMISTS TEMPER THIS YEAR'S FORECAST BUT PROJECT 10% FOR 5 YEAR PERIOD

Zillow's poll is fairly exhaustive including 104 economists.  What exactly did they guess? : 1) 2012 originally thought to have a decline of 0.18 now comes in at 0.72%  2) 2013 was projected originally to gain 1.75%, now at 1.39%  3) 2016, however, stays the same with estimated growth of 3.32%.  The 10% gain, had originally been 11%.  So if you think 10% is rather bullish, maybe it isn't.  Trulia did a study to see if buying still beats renting and except in two marketplaces, Honolulu and San Francisco, it does.  This is a good time to bring this up, because even as housing affordability soars, pessimists point out that it is affordable because it crashed in the worst, possible, way.  Now, what Trulia is pointing out, is that with rates in the mid-fours (yes, they have risen slightly, still killer good), one can literally freeze their housing costs for 30 years.  Last month we compared the inflation of renting to owning and it was a bloodbath in favor of owning.  With so many economists projecting growth in 5 years, it may be time to seriously consider more real estate investment.  It can be guaranteed if you double that 5 year window to 10 years, most assuredly those who did invest, will look like geniuses.

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